
Global wheat futures are in a confirmed downtrend since early October highs, supported by the Ukraine export corridor that has moved about 10 million tonnes and a Russian crop forecast above 95 million tonnes. Harvest selling pressure is expected as Australian and other headers roll.
Record Russian production and competitive FOB offers cap wheat prices, while harvest pressure and reduced trade concerns add further downside risk.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 82 past bearish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Confirmed downtrend backed by the Ukraine export corridor, a large Russian crop and harvest selling pressure supplied the bearish supply backdrop.