Wolf Street reports that Mexico has retaliated against US steel tariffs with duties on US products including pork, whisky and cheese, while the Mexican government has so far ruled out tariffs on corn, beans and soy. Calls for targeting US corn are growing, and Mexico is the third-largest US agricultural export market.
Rising risk of Mexican duties on US corn, the largest buyer of US corn after the EU and Japan, raises downside risk for US corn and feed-grain prices, while pork tariffs weigh on hog demand.
After 683 past bearish trade events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 123 past bearish trade events, HOGS moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.0%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.