◂ Event Timeline

Feb 14, 2018TRADEUS

Lagging Soybean Sales to China

Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans have lagged amid a reported de facto boycott linked to the Trump administration's tariffs on Chinese washing machines and solar panels. Chinese quality standards on foreign material and lower protein in the 2017 U.S. crop have also weighed.

USDA cut the 2017/18 U.S. soybean export forecast by 60 million bushels, following a 65 million bushel cut in January.

WHY IT MATTERS

Repeated USDA export cuts signal weaker US demand and larger carryout, which is bearish for soybeans and meal. Growing Brazilian share of China's market reinforces the pressure.

AFFECTSSoybeans▼Soybean Meal▼

SOURCE
dtnpf.comJoel KarlinFeb 14, 2018

Price reaction & history

Soybeans▼bearishSO FAR1d +0.5%5d +2.2%20d +1.7%

After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

Aug 1, 2019China’s U.S. Soybean Purchases Slump to 2004 Low-1.8%
Feb 1, 2017China’s soybean speculation+1.8%
Jun 16, 2018China targets corn, soybeans-1.2%
Oct 24, 2018China wants to stop buying American soybeans entirely-2.8%
Dec 3, 2021US Soybean Export Sales Running Out of Time+1.6%

Soybean Meal▼bearishSO FAR1d +1.3%5d +3.5%20d +0.8%

After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.

Oct 24, 2018China wants to stop buying American soybeans entirely-1.8%
Dec 3, 2021US Soybean Export Sales Running Out of Time+2.4%
Jun 8, 2026China soybean meal prices hit multi-year lows-4.9%
Feb 25, 2017Soybean sales start seasonal slump-0.8%
Dec 27, 2018Inside China's strategy in the soybean trade war+3.1%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Soybeans SOY · GP ▸

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Soybean Meal SBM · GP ▸

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