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USDA reported on December 2 that US soybean export commitments totaled 1.366 billion bushels, down 29% from a year earlier, with 749 million bushels destined for China, 31% below last year. The analyst expects exports to fall well short of USDA's 2.050 billion bushel estimate if the pace continues.
Weak Chinese purchases raise the risk of higher US ending soybean stocks, which is bearish for soybean prices. Cheaper beans could boost domestic crush and meal output.
dtnpf.comTodd HultmanDec 3, 2021After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 81 past neutral trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
