
China's soymeal inventories have built up after record soybean imports earlier in 2025 and tepid feed demand, according to trade sources. Crushing plants may face shutdowns, and the surplus could weaken Chinese soybean demand during the fourth-quarter US export season.
Recent Argentine soymeal purchases are likely to add to the supply glut.
A soymeal surplus in China lowers crush margins and reduces import needs for soybeans, which pressures soybean and soymeal prices ahead of the US export season.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.