
USDA cut its 2016/17 U.S. soybean meal export projection by 200,000 tons in the January WASDE, to 11.60 million tons. Sales and shipments through late January were the lowest in five years, at 63.5% and 30.1% of that estimate.
Strong dollar and an optimistic South American crop outlook were cited as headwinds.
Slow US meal exports and competition from other proteins and South American supply point to weak meal prices and possible further USDA export cuts.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.