
Brazil's share of soybean exports to China, the world's top buyer, reached a record in 2017 and is expected to grow again this year. Brazilian beans, including freight, were around $428 a tonne versus $433 for U.S. supply.
Chicago soybean prices averaged $9.75 a bushel in 2017, well below the 2010-2016 average of $12.
Cheaper, high-protein Brazilian supply draws Chinese demand away from U.S. beans and keeps global soybean and meal prices under pressure. Feed buyers have more competitive sourcing options.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.