Brazil exported a record 10.4 million tonnes of soybean meal in the first half of 2022, up 28% year on year, according to government data. Abiove forecasts full-year 2022 meal exports of 18.5 million tonnes, despite a smaller soybean crop of 124 million tonnes and expected crushing of 48.3 million tonnes.
Heavy Brazilian meal exports add supply to global markets, which is bearish for soymeal prices. Lower domestic meat-driven meal use is the cause, and buyers may find more export-priced meal available.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.