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Brazil exported a record 23.3 million metric tons of soybean meal in 2025, with half going to the EU. S&P Global forecasts exports will reach 24.5 million tons in 2026 on a bumper Brazilian soybean crop.
A large Brazilian crop and record export pace add meal supply that keeps already low South American prices under pressure.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.