
Brazil harvested nearly 160 million tonnes of soybeans and exported a record 72.47 million tonnes in the first seven months of 2023, up 20% year on year. Argentina, hit by a roughly 50% drought-driven crop decline, bought Brazilian beans and ceded its top soybean meal export position to Brazil.
Brazil's record export pace and meal leadership add competitive supply to global soybean and meal markets, pressuring US export prices.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.