
USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service expects the U.S. to export more soybean oil than it imports in FY 2024-25, reversing a two-year net import position. Soybean oil use in renewable diesel has declined as tallow and used cooking oil replace it, and U.S. soybean oil production is forecast at a record 12.93 million mt.
A record crop and falling biofuel use shift the U.S. toward net exports, which adds supply to world markets and weighs on soybean oil prices.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 152 past bearish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.