
Imports of used cooking oil, beef tallow and canola oil have grown strongly and are displacing domestic soybean oil in biofuel production. Soybean oil use in biofuel rose only 2.2% so far this year.
Imported feedstocks gained favor because of biofuel tax credits that rewarded lower carbon intensity.
Heavy use of imported feedstocks limits how much U.S. soybean oil can gain from biofuel demand. That weighs on soybean oil prices despite mandate growth.
After 152 past bearish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.