
RHB Research says China's halt on US soybean purchases for the season will depress soybean oil prices and erode CPO's price competitiveness. The firm cites Oil World data showing a high end-August 2026 soybean stock/usage ratio, and the CPO-SBO discount has narrowed sharply.
Lower soyoil prices narrow the discount that drives India's palm oil buying, which could reduce palm oil imports. Ample soybean stocks keep vegetable oil prices under pressure.
After 158 past bearish trade events, PALMOIL moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.8%), and -1.4% over 20.
After 152 past bearish trade events, SBO moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, SBM moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.