China's soybean demand is expected to stay soft until at least May, with April open demand seen down 20% to 8 million mt and May down 10% to 9 million mt, according to market sources. Poor crush margins are driven by an oversupply of soybean meal after strong early-year imports, and weak hog demand compounds the problem.
Lower Chinese import demand weighs on soybean and soybean meal prices, and reduced meal use in feed signals softer protein demand for feed buyers.
After 803 past bearish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, SBM moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.