China's soybean demand is expected to stay weak until May, according to market sources, as almost all crushing plants run below capacity amid negative or weak crush margins. Crushers have cut purchases as soymeal demand for animal feed fell after Lunar New Year.
China accounts for over 60% of oilseed purchases from the US and Brazil.
A prolonged drop in Chinese crush and purchases removes a major source of import demand, which is bearish for US and Brazilian soybeans and soymeal.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.