
McKeany-Flavell reports that soybean import tariffs and a weaker renminbi have squeezed Chinese soybean crush margins. China may shift toward importing soybean meal rather than beans, and Argentina suspended its soymeal export tax partly to meet Chinese meal demand.
A shift in China toward meal imports reduces its demand for soybeans and supports Argentine and Brazilian meal flows, weighing on U.S. soybean and meal prices.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 22 past bearish trade events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.3%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.