Global soybean shipments have slowed, with June trade estimated 3.6 million tonnes below last year. Weaker Chinese purchases have left Chinese stocks high, and large pork supplies have cut pig prices and soybean meal demand.
Lower shipments are expected until the U.S. harvest.
Weaker Chinese import demand and lower meal use point to softer soybean and soybean meal prices in the near term, while larger South American supplies later in the year add further pressure.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.