
China proposed a 25 percent tariff on US soybeans as part of its response to planned US tariffs on Chinese products. Argentina has bought 240,000 tonnes of US soybeans, its largest purchase in 20 years, and Brazil and Argentina prices have already risen.
A tariff on US soybeans would divert Chinese demand to Brazil and Argentina, lifting South American prices and pressuring US soybean values while reshaping global trade flows.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.