
Chinese officials reportedly named US soybeans a prime target for retaliation against US steel and aluminum tariffs, according to the American Soybean Association. China imports more than a third of all US soybeans.
Signals of possible Chinese purchase cuts from the largest US export market add downside risk to US soybean prices and support Brazilian export premiums.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.