◂ Event Timeline

Apr 13, 2018TRADEGlobal

How Sometimes Just A Threat Of A Tariff Can Change The Flow Of Global Trade: NPR

NPR reports that China's list of possible tariffs on U.S. soybeans, though not yet imposed, has already redirected global soybean trade flows across four continents. Affected U.S. soybean growers and the U.S. Soybean Export Council are responding to the threat.

WHY IT MATTERS

Buyers shifting away from U.S. supply reduces U.S. export demand and widens basis differences, which tends to pressure U.S. soybean prices while favoring Brazilian and Argentine origins.

AFFECTSSoybeans▼

SOURCE
npr.orgRobert SmithApr 13, 2018

Price reaction & history

Soybeans▼bearishSO FAR1d -0.6%5d -2.2%20d -4.5%

After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

Apr 17, 2018China tariffs spark shake-up of global soybean trade flows-2.0%
Apr 5, 2018All the Threats and Tariffs in the U.S.-China Trade Conflict+3.2%
May 9, 2018China cutting US soybean purchases in face of tariffs threat | AP News+0.7%
Apr 4, 2018China Tariff Threat Prompts U.S. Farmers to Weigh Changes+1.2%
Dec 1, 2025How the Lowly Soybean Got Trapped in the Crossfire of the U.S.-China Trade Wars-2.9%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Soybeans SOY · GP ▸

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