
Analysts forecast weaker Chinese demand for canola oil and meal as global soybean supply rises, with canola oil falling most after the Spring Festival. Chinese canola imports from Canada have doubled to about 2.3 million tonnes over November to February, and rapeseed meal trades around $450-480/t.
Rising Chinese canola imports add processed supply that competes with soybean meal, and a medium-term oversupply of canola oil and meal points to lower prices.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 152 past bearish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.