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The USDA FAS forecasts Argentina will export 8.2 million tonnes of soybeans in the current year, up 5% and the highest since 2019-20. China has shifted purchases to Brazil and Argentina, and recently agreed to resume US soybean imports, pledging 12 million tonnes this year and 25 million annually for three years.
Argentina's export tax on soybeans was cut 2 points to 24%, which FAS does not expect to materially change planting.
Stronger Argentine export flows add supply to global soymeal and oil markets, while renewed China purchases of US beans support the US soybean complex and reduce Argentina's export advantage.
world-grain.comArvin DonleyJan 13, 2026After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 152 past bearish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
