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Soybean flows from Argentina to China in 2025 have run ahead of 2024 levels since April, with soybeans making up 67% of Argentina's agricultural dry bulk exports and China taking 86% of that volume. Chinese crushers reportedly bought about 20 Argentine cargoes in late September after Buenos Aires temporarily suspended export taxes.
New US soybean sales to China in September were minimal.
Heavy Argentine supply to China, aided by the tax suspension, displaces US demand and adds export competition, which weighs on soybean and soymeal prices.
worldports.orgCarlos NievesSep 30, 2025After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 14 past neutral trade events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.2% to +0.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
