Global Aquaculture Alliance vice president Steve Hart says China's 25% tariff on US soybeans will have little effect on Chinese aquafeed prices because global supply is strong. US soybean prices have fallen 21% in three months to $8.32 per bushel as Chinese buyers cancelled orders, while Argentine and Brazilian prices rose.
The tariff shifts Chinese soybean demand toward South America, weighing on US soybean prices and supporting Brazilian and Argentine beans. Hart expects limited impact on feed costs in the short run, though China's reliance on South America raises weather risk.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 14 past neutral trade events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -0.2% to +0.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.