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South American new-crop soybean supplies are starting their seasonal rise, taking business from U.S. sellers. China's U.S. share of imports fell to 88% last month, and it cancelled a cargo as crush margins turned negative.
Seasonal South American supply and Chinese diversification and cancellations pressure U.S. soybean export demand and prices, while crush margin weakness signals softer soymeal and oil demand.
farmprogress.comBryce Knorr 1Feb 25, 2017After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 152 past bearish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
