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China's soybean demand appears to be slumping, with USDA trimming its 2022-23 crush estimate by one million tonnes to 91 million. Despite a record first-quarter import pace of 23 million tonnes, traders expected larger buying, and Dalian soybean and soymeal prices have fallen since early March.
Analysts link the weakness possibly to African swine fever resurgence, though the cause remains unclear.
Softer Chinese crush and feed demand reduces import needs for soybeans and soymeal, weighing on global prices. The uncertain cause adds risk to the outlook for other oilseeds like canola.
producer.comSean PrattApr 14, 2023After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
