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China's agriculture ministry cut its 2018-19 soybean import estimate to 84 million tonnes from 94 million in August. The USDA's September estimate is 94 million tonnes.
Analysts are divided on whether China will substantially reduce soybean use, and some expect it to source more from Brazil and Argentina.
A sharp cut in Chinese import demand would leave more soybeans and meal available for other buyers, which is bearish for soybean and soybean meal prices. The disagreement between Chinese official estimates and USDA figures adds uncertainty to the outlook.
producer.comSean PrattOct 4, 2018After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
