Soybean prices in Chicago fell at the start of the week amid risk aversion over the Evergrande crisis in China. US export inspections were far below last year, and Gulf export capacity remained limited after Hurricane Ida.
Brazil's record soybean area and production estimate weighs on the outlook, though a possible La Niña and restricted US stocks offer support.
Weak US export sales and a large Brazilian crop point to lower soybean and meal prices, while restricted US stocks limit downside.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.