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North Dakota soybean farmers, who have the best access to ports serving China, cannot sell their crops at a profit. Record soybean supplies remain in storage ahead of the next harvest.
Record stocks and lost China demand keep U.S. soybean basis and cash prices depressed, reinforcing downside pressure until export outlets reopen.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.