USDA data showed October and November 2017 agricultural exports totaled $26.5 billion, about 7% below the prior year. USDA projected FY 2018 agricultural exports at $140.0 billion, and the January WASDE cut soybean exports by 65 million bushels to 2,160 million on lagging sales and stronger Brazilian competition.
Weaker US soybean export commitments and rising Brazilian competition point to softer soybean demand and bearish pressure on soybean prices.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.