
House Agriculture Committee members outlined priorities for the 2018 farm bill at a February 15 session. Rep.
Rick Crawford raised the risk that Mexico could stop buying US corn and rice in retaliation for a possible border adjustment tax, and economist Pat Westhoff said trade pattern shifts would not greatly change the corn market.
A Mexican boycott of US corn would be a notable export risk for feed grains, but analysts think Mexico would likely shift to other origins, limiting the net price impact.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 206 past neutral trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.6%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 13 past neutral trade events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.1%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.