Market commentary says confusion persists over US dollar policy after Mnuchin's comments, and notes new US tariffs on solar panels and washing machines. The author argues the US has not abandoned its strong dollar policy and that additional trade measures on steel and aluminum may follow.
Expected further US tariffs raise trade-war risk for agricultural exports, while dollar policy uncertainty adds volatility to dollar-priced grain and oilseed contracts.
After 13 past neutral trade events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.1%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.