
May soybeans fell the daily 70-cent limit to a more-than-two-week low on March 16, and May soyoil dropped the 350-point limit. Corn and wheat also declined, while cotton rose to a 4.5-month high on US-China talks in Paris.
Spillover from the soybean and soyoil limit-down moves pushed corn and wheat lower. Expanded price limits on Tuesday signal continued volatility for the soy complex.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 152 past bearish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
May soyoil fell the 350-point daily limit on March 16, the main downside shock inside the 5-day window ending March 19.
Confirms the limit-down day in soybeans and soyoil on March 16, which accounts for the size of the one-day drop.