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May soybean futures fell the 70-cent daily limit on March 16 after Trump threatened to delay the Xi summit unless Beijing helped open the Strait of Hormuz. Soybean meal, soyoil, corn and wheat also fell sharply, with US soybeans trading at a premium to Brazil.
Threats to the China purchase program, which is tied to a 25 MMT annual commitment, directly weigh on US soybean and meal prices. The premium over Brazilian beans makes the US market sensitive to Sino-US tensions.
profarmer.comBill WattsMar 16, 2026After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 152 past bearish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
May soybeans fell the 70-cent limit after Trump threatened to delay the Xi summit unless Beijing helped open the Strait of Hormuz, a demand and sentiment shock for US exports.
Trump's threat to delay the China summit unless Beijing helped open Hormuz triggered limit-down moves across soybeans and soyoil.
