
Soybean futures rallied on June 21, 2021, after USDA confirmed China bought 336,000 MT of soybeans for 2021-22 delivery, with a further 120,000 MT sold to unknown destinations. Corn fell as Midwest rains eased dryness concerns, and July soybean meal declined while soybean oil rose.
New Chinese purchases tighten the US soybean balance sheet and support soybean prices, while rain-driven weather relief reduces the corn risk premium and pressures corn values.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 384 past bearish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.