
Global cow milk production grew about 1.5 percent in 2017 and is forecast to keep rising, with the global milk surplus cited as a key challenge. Analysts expect demand growth from developing countries, especially India, and rising incomes in Asia and the Middle East.
The outlook also flags trade-war risk as a source of near-term volatility.
Oversupply weighs on milk prices, while rising demand in Asia could support export volumes. Dairy herd feed demand will depend on how trade conditions evolve.
After 49 past bearish trade events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -4.7% to +1.5%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.