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Former President Trump confirmed he is considering tariffs of 60% or higher on Chinese goods in a second term, plus a blanket 10% tariff on all US imports. China responded to earlier Trump-era tariffs with retaliatory levies on US soybeans, wheat and poultry.
Biden largely kept those tariffs in place.
Escalated tariffs would likely trigger Chinese retaliation against US soybeans, wheat and poultry, pressuring those prices. The proposal is not yet policy, so its impact depends on the election outcome.
farmpolicynews.illinois.eduRyan HanrahanFeb 6, 2024After 803 past bearish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 375 past bearish trade events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
