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Global bond markets sold off over the past week after strong US data, with both bonds and equities falling. The IMF cut its 2018 world growth forecast to 3.7% from 3.9%, citing trade challenges, while Italian 10-year yields spiked to 3.5% over the budget dispute with Brussels.
The Brazilian real surged 5% after far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro led the first round of the presidential election.
Dollar strength and weaker global growth pressure emerging-market currencies and feed-importing economies, raising their cost of buying US commodities. The Chinese yuan's slide toward 6.92 per dollar makes US feed ingredients more expensive for Chinese buyers, a bearish signal for export demand.
bondvigilantes.comElena MoyaOct 11, 2018After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 398 past bullish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 117 past bearish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
