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StoneX's weekly FX outlook for Brazil flags the USD/BRL pair as sensitive to a possible Trump-Lula conversation, a potential US government shutdown and upcoming economic data. The week's review noted in-line US PCE data and an unexpectedly upward revised US Q2 GDP.
Expected rapprochement between Brazil and the US could ease trade tensions that have affected soybean and corn flows, with a mild bearish effect on the dollar-real rate.
stonex.comLeonel MattosSep 29, 2025After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
