Strong El Niño this year appears unlikely

After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Apr 1, 2019March 2019 El Niño Update: Think spring+0.2%
• Dec 11, 2025La Niña to fade early next year, neutral Pacific conditions likely, U.S. forecasters say - AgCanada+0.5%
• Feb 18, 2026Top DTN La Nina to El Nino Analog Years Show Large US Corn Production+0.2%
• Aug 4, 2024La Niña’s likely return will undo some of past year’s crop havoc - Moneyweb-1.7%
• Mar 21, 2024El Niño's impact on U.S. Farmers | American Ag Network-3.0%

After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.

• May 1, 2019Strong chance of El Niño developing, but likely to be short-lived: BOM - Grain Central-4.6%
• May 30, 2023The spectre of El Niño - Mecardo-4.0%
• Aug 4, 2024La Niña’s likely return will undo some of past year’s crop havoc - Moneyweb+4.7%
• Apr 25, 2018El Niño–Southern Oscillation likely to remain neutral through winter - Grain Central+3.5%
• Mar 21, 2024El Niño's impact on U.S. Farmers | American Ag Network+0.9%

After 29 past bearish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -2.2% to +0.6%), and -1.4% over 20.

• Jul 11, 2024La Nina weather 70% likely to develop in Aug-Oct, says US forecaster | Reuters+0.9%
• May 27, 2019WMO El Niño/La Niña Update (May 2019) - World | ReliefWeb-0.1%
• Oct 4, 2017Palm oil production to revive following departure of El Niño+0.9%
• Mar 9, 2017Global palm oil output likely to increase by six mln tonnes — Expert | Borneo Post Online-1.8%
• Sep 11, 2023BERNAMA - Analysts Forecast Cpo Prices At Rm4,000-rm4,200 Next Year-1.3%