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A US forecaster put the chance of La Niña developing in August to October 2024 at 70%. Wet weather could lift rice and palm oil yields in Southeast Asia, and a normal Indian monsoon could support production, after dry spells in some areas during the now-dissipated El Niño.
Favorable rainfall in Southeast Asia and India points to larger rice and palm oil supplies, which is bearish for those prices over the coming season.
reuters.comRahul PaswanJul 11, 2024After 27 past bearish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median -1.6% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.1%), and -1.3% over 20.
After 29 past bearish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -2.2% to +0.6%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
