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Indian exporters expect basmati output in 2020 to rise about 7% from last year to 8 million tonnes, thanks to good rains and labour availability. Exporters report new orders from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Eastern Europe, though payments from Iran are still outstanding.
Higher basmati output and steady export demand point to ample supply for the new season, a mildly bearish factor for rice prices.
After 27 past bearish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median -1.6% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -3.4% to +1.1%), and -1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.