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Bloomberg reports a 70% chance that La Niña forms between August and October 2024, which would follow the strongest El Niño in almost a decade. La Niña typically brings stronger rain to Asia and drier conditions to parts of South America, which could reverse last year's crop losses.
A likely La Niña raises expectations of better South American and Asian crops, which is bearish for grains and oilseeds if it materializes. The timing and strength remain uncertain.
moneyweb.co.zaIlena Peng, Dayanne Sousa, BloombergAug 4, 2024After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
