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The WMO's May 2019 El Niño/La Niña update says Pacific sea surface temperatures have been at borderline to weak El Niño levels since October 2018. The atmosphere began showing El Niño-like patterns only in February.
The chance of El Niño in June-August is 60-65%, and a strong event in 2019 appears low.
The update confirms that a strong El Niño is unlikely, which reduces the chance of major drought in key producing regions. This keeps weather risk premium modest for feed grains and oilseeds.
reliefweb.intMay 27, 2019After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 29 past bearish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -2.2% to +0.6%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
