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The WMO reports that the 2020-2021 La Niña has concluded based on oceanic and atmospheric indicators. Neutral conditions are favored through boreal summer, with a 78% chance for May-July, falling to 55% for August-October.
ENSO-neutral removes a La Niña drought risk for South America and the US Plains, which supports crop prospects and tempers the upward price pressure on corn, soy and wheat. Uncertainty about a return to La Niña or a move to El Niño later in the year keeps some risk premium in place.
wmo.intMay 15, 2021
yubanet.comNOAAMay 13, 2021After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
