AHDB reports UK feed wheat and Paris rapeseed futures slipped while Chicago was supported ahead of the WASDE. It says most 2023/24 grain supply is already accounted for, and Brazil's second corn crop planting is running ahead of last year.
Nearby prices are unlikely to rise much unless Brazil's second corn crop comes in smaller than forecast, while a La Niña-driven drought in 2024 could support later-dated contracts. Large Russian supplies continue to weigh on wheat.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.