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Rabobank says Australia's winter crop outlook has improved after timely rain, moving from below-average to a potentially average season. National wheat production is estimated at 27 to 30 million tonnes, with caution about El Niño-linked spring dryness.
Improved yield prospects reduce the chance of a supply shortfall, which weighs on wheat prices. The El Niño risk limits how far that pressure can go.
newshub.medianet.com.auRabobankJul 31, 2026After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
