◂ Event Timeline

May 1, 2019WEATHERAustralia

Strong chance of El Niño developing, but likely to be short-lived: BOM

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology keeps its El Niño Alert with about a 70% chance of El Niño developing in 2019. Models indicate any event would be short-lived, with most returning to neutral by September.

A neutral Indian Ocean Dipole is expected for now.

WHY IT MATTERS

A short-lived El Niño limits the drought risk for Australian wheat and barley and reduces the supply-risk premium. Buyers can expect less upside from Australian grain origins.

AFFECTSWheat (SRW)▼Barley▼

SOURCE
graincentral.comGrain CentralMay 1, 2019

Price reaction & history

Wheat (SRW)▼bearishSO FAR1d +0.3%5d -4.6%20d -9.2%

After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.

Apr 25, 2018El Niño–Southern Oscillation likely to remain neutral through winter - Grain Central+3.5%
May 24, 2019Strong El Niño this year appears unlikely-12.2%
May 29, 2019Southern winter crop off to a promising start - Grain Central+9.6%
May 16, 2017El Nino bias retreats - Grain Central+3.2%
May 18, 2023Wheat Tour Sees Short Crop; Black Sea Grain Deal Prevents Rally-1.2%

Barley▼bearish

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Wheat (SRW) WHEAT · GP ▸

——— · ·

Barley BARLEY · GP ▸

——— · ·

Loading…