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Malaysian analysts forecast crude palm oil prices of RM4,000 to RM4,200 per tonne in 2024, below the RM4,900 average of 2022. They cite weather, sunflower oil pricing and geopolitical risks, and say El Nino could cut Malaysian output by about one million tonnes in 2024.
A lower forecast price range reflects expected supply pressure, while El Nino-driven output losses would be a key upside risk.
After 29 past bearish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -2.2% to +0.6%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.