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Hog margins deteriorated in the first half of October as hog prices fell more than feed costs eased. The pork cutout dropped around $20/cwt from summer highs and cash hogs were down about $5/cwt in October.
USDA's October WASDE raised corn and soybean production forecasts and ending stocks.
Weaker hog margins reduce producer feed buying, while the larger USDA corn and soybean supply estimates add bearish pressure to feed grain prices.
swineweb.comJim EadieOct 20, 2021After 159 past bearish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Documents the cutout falling about $20/cwt and cash hogs down about $5/cwt in October, confirming the fundamental price weakness behind the futures decline.
